Ged Kearney and Malarndirri McCarthy are favourites to be promoted to the frontbench when the reshuffle is announced on Sunday.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will announce a new Cabinet on Sunday, and although health minister Mark Butler seems certain to remain, two of his assistant ministers are in line for promotion to the senior ranks.
Minister for Indigenous Australians Linda Burney announced her retirement this morning, as did skills minister Brendan O’Connor. Both will continue in parliament but will not contest the next federal election.
“In recent times, I’ve had discussions with Linda and Brendan about their future and they have informed me that they have decided to not contest the next election as (the) member for Barton and the member for Gorton,” Mr Albanese told the media.
“As a result of that they have also made the decision to step down from the ministry to enable a refresh and enable some new ministers to be able to take their place and take us forward over the coming months before the election, which is due in 2025.
“This provides an opportunity to refresh the frontbench.”
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Assistant minister for health and aged care Ged Kearney is a hot tip to replace Mr O’Connor, given her background as a former president of the Australian Council of Trade Unions (2010-2018) and secretary of the Australian Nursing Federation (2008-2010) before her election to parliament in 2018.
Ms Kearney has been a popular advocate, particularly in mental health circles, and would be considered a serious loss.
The obvious choice for the Indigenous Australians portfolio is the current assistant minister senator Malarndirri McCarthy.
Senator McCarthy is also assistant minister for Indigenous health, a role she may hold on to if promoted to the frontbench, although that is by no means a certainty.
Mr Albanese told media the new ministers will be sworn in next Monday.
“At the next election, I will be seeking to be the first prime minister since John Howard in 2004 to serve out a term and be re-elected as prime minister,” he said.
Factional politics will likely be the determinant of who gets what.
Ms Burney is a member of the NSW left and Mr O’Connor is a member of the Victorian left. Both senator McCarthy and Ms Kearney are members of the left faction.