DoHAC reporting on covid death rates created a stir this week. Find out why.
Data released on Thursday by the federal Department of Health and Aged Care claimed that for the first time since the covid pandemic began, Australia recorded no deaths associated with the virus for at least a week.
However, within 24 hours the report was updated to reflect a different result. The rolling seven-day average of deaths on 29 February that was listed as zero was updated to six, and the report for 3 March also updated from zero to five deaths.
The DoHAC figures, which date back to January 2022 show a steady decline in covid-related deaths this year, and as of 9 April, the rolling seven-day average of deaths was one.
The report also showed the number of admissions to hospitals are also declining and are at their lowest since January 2022.
Karen Cutter, an actuary and Chair of the Actuaries Institute’s Mortality Working Group, offered clarification on the issue.
“The graph on the Federal Health website showing Covid-19 associated deaths is based on date of death, but there are delays between when a death occurs and when it is reported,” she said.
“So for the most recent month shown, the number of deaths is vastly understated as not all deaths have been reported. This is particularly the case for the most recent week, where it is almost impossible for a death to happen and for it to be captured in the federal database. As such, to state that there have been no Covid-19 deaths in the last week based on this graph is simply not true.
“A similar situation arises for the graph of hospital admissions, but the delays are not as long – a matter of days rather than weeks. However, it does mean that the most recent point is significantly understated. As such, to compare hospital admissions for the most recent point to earlier periods is not valid.”
The results showing a decline in the death rate was welcomed by experts, although not all agreed it was the “milestone” others thought it to be.
Associate Professor Hassan Vally, an expert in epidemiology from the School of Health and Social Development at Deakin University, had originally used this tag before the figures were corrected.
“It serves as a clear indicator of where we are now when it comes to this disease that turned our lives upside down, and it highlights how much the overall threat that covid-19 poses to us as a population has fallen since the beginning of the pandemic,” he said.
“Of course, whilst acknowledging this significant milestone, we need to understand that covid-19 is a disease that is here to stay and which we need to continue to respond to. The SARS-CoV-2 virus still poses many challenges for us, among them, learning how to manage and treat the longer-term effects of infection.”
Associate Professor James Wood, an infectious disease modeller from the University of New South Wales, questioned the original figures at the start.
“While this is encouraging data, it’s almost certainly not correct that there were zero covid deaths in that week,” he said in a statement.
“Instead, our near real-time reporting system for reporting of deaths has mostly wound down and we now need to rely on the slower ABS reporting which tends to occur at about a two-month delay.”
Professor Adrian Esterman, Chair of Biostatistics and Epidemiology at the University of South Australia, said Australia was in a “trough after the wave caused by the subvariant JN.1 at the end of last year”.
“Although Australia is in its best position with respect to covid-19 for some time, we should not get complacent,” he said.
“Last month there were over 250 active covid-19 outbreaks in residential aged care homes, and only 36% of Australians aged 75 and over have had a booster shot within the last six months.
“We see very little messaging from any of our governments encouraging elderly people to get vaccinated. This is not good enough. We should at the very least still be doing all we can to protect our vulnerable population.”
Associate Professor Sanjaya Senanayake, a specialist in Infectious Diseases and Associate Professor of Medicine at he Australian National University, was also positive about declining deaths but cautious.
“There is a caveat though, namely that covid-19 is still circulating and it isn’t going anywhere,” he said.
“Like influenza, it will mutate. And like influenza, a big mutation, for example, into a new variant (which will be Pi, the next letter in the Greek alphabet), could lead to a significant outbreak of covid-19.
“However, even if this occurs, we still have effective antivirals to protect people at risk.”
Professor Jaya Dantas, Dean (International) and a Professor of International Health in the Faculty of Health Sciences at Curtin University, said the figures indicated there was herd immunity from people having had covid and taking advantage of vaccination.
“We may continue to see spikes, especially during the winter months, as has been the case in other countries along with RSV [respiratory syncytial virus] and the flu, but this can be managed within our health system efficiently,” she said.
Dr Roger Lord, a senior lecturer (Medical Sciences) with the Faculty of Health Sciences at the Australian Catholic University and visiting research fellow with Prince Charles Hospital, said covid appeared to be following a similar pattern to what was seen for the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918-19 with case-number peaks becoming smaller with each wave.
“This is encouraging and no doubt a reflection of the high levels of vaccination attained in the Australian population,” he said.
“It is equally important not to become complacent [but to maintain] strategies that continue to reduce the number of observed covid-19 cases.”